Is hoarding cash the prudent move as market awaits election results?
Oct 04, 2016 10:47AM ● By Guest
Could cash stuffed into a Mason jar and buried in the back yard be the best investment hedge against the unpredictable future that this year’s presidential election will bring?
While no one actually encourages burying money, some financial watchers have suggested that hoarding cash, even as much as 50 percent of your portfolio, would be a smart way to limit risk in case the market gets extraordinarily jittery once we know who the next president will be.
But not everyone agrees that strategy is the right call, at least not for all.
“Cash is an old standby that certainly works,” said Rich Conley, executive vice president for Sawtooth Solutions, a company that provides technology platforms that help financial advisors manage their clients’ accounts. “But raising cash could create unintended tax consequences so you will want to take that into consideration as well.”
Conley says “hoarding” is something of a loaded word. It suggests that people are letting emotion creep into what should be a disciplined approach to investing and building wealth over time.
“Hoarding may also be counterproductive,” he said. “It may be a good idea for some investors, but not for others. The primary reason someone would want to hold a higher-than-normal amount of cash is to reduce investment risks. To reduce risks, you need to have a good idea of how much risk you are taking right now and how much of it you want to reduce. That answer won’t be the same for everyone.”
He says there are a few things to consider before anyone decides to join with the cash hoarders.
Market reaction isn’t inevitable
Just because doomsayers think election results could negatively jolt the market, that doesn’t mean it will happen.
“If you think back to the last election, it produced a result that was very counterintuitive, with the market rallying very strongly following the results,” Conley said. “I don’t know many people who would have guessed that, except those who believed the status quo would be rewarded.”
Other options exist besides hoarding
There are plenty of alternative approaches to limiting risk. But in choosing one, investors should decide for themselves what they are trying to protect against and what approach best matches their forecast outcome and concerns.
Issues to watch
The political issues of particular concern to investors are the same issues impacting the general electorate, such as national security, public safety and the economy. Depending on who wins, the approach to those issues could be quite different, as would be the effect on investors.
“No matter what, we will have a new administration and things change,” Conley said. “There is risk in change and likely it will be quarters before there is clarity on the nature of that change.”